Time will tell with Iran.
So, we have a Memorandum of Understanding between the Trump administration and whomever it is that’s nominally running that broken, malfeasant, dishonest nation that we call Iran.
Already, the critics are weighing in. The usual suspects on the left are saying that Trump, after starting an “unnecessary war,” got nothing more than what Obama got from the JCPOA – a.k.a. the “Iran Deal” – back in 2015.
Here’s Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer:
After more than 100 days of bloodshed, 13 Americans killed, hundreds more wounded, tens of billions of dollars spent, what exactly did we get out of Trump’s failed war?”
Critics on the right are calling out Trump for not “finishing the job.” They argue, not unreasonably, that a purely diplomatic deal with Iran is impossible. An agreement signed on Monday will be violated early on Tuesday. Righty critics argue that only “boots on the ground” (how I detest that shopworn cliché) and a total military conquest of Iran can assure the world that Iran won’t resume its malfeasance at the first opportunity.
But there is exactly zero chance of “boots on the ground” (there it is again). Zip. Zilch. None.
With respect to Iran either not making or violating a deal, President Trump said this:
I let ‘em know, I said, look, if you don’t adhere to the agreement – I don’t want to do that – but we’re gonna bomb the hell out of you.”
Here’s how I’m calling it.
I said in this space last week that something had to give in Iran. I also recognize that the politics of the moment weigh heavily on the policy of the moment. If the Iranians have been “tapping us along” as we discussed last week, Trump may well be trying now to tap the Iranians along past the midterms. If he can, for the next 140 days or so, keep the Strait of Hormuz fully open and oil again flowing at market prices, it improves the (still long) odds of Republicans keeping control of Congress following the midterms.
As to Schumer and the rest of the critics on the left, what’s different from Obama’s JCPOA is that unlike what they thought about Obama, the Iranian theocrats know for certain that Donald Trump is a badass. They know that he will “bomb the hell out of them” if they don’t behave.
And unlike Obama’s deal, it’s not Obama making it. Nor is it Bush, Clinton, Bush or Biden – all of whom were willing at times to talk tough but never willing to act tough. And unlike the JCPOA in 2015, in 2026 Iran’s economy is on its knees while those now in charge there have fresh memories of how their predecessors died.
Will this deal work? Who knows? Time will tell. Critics from both sides may yet be proven right.
But something had to give, and something now has.
And for all the uncertainty, to an honest observer it’s undeniable that the U.S. is its best position vis. a. vis. Iran in nearly half a century.
The deal certainly will not work! And so, here we go again!
Now we first must sign a Memorandum of Understanding followed by 60 days of negotiation? If this exercise in “diplomacy” represents a victory, it is an Iranian victory. The man “holding all the cards,” the man who demanded Iran’s “total surrender” not so long ago–that man blinked big time before the Iranians did.
Thus, and so, and against all odds, a psychopathic theocracy, crippled and on its knees, was thrown a lifeline and billions of dollars.
The regime that has ruled Iran for 47 years has been green-lighted to remorselessly pursue the destruction of Israel and the United States for, if necessary, the next 47 years.
All in the name of lowering the price of gasoline and winning elections for feckless politicians.
Here is what America and the world will get from the Memorandum of Understanding, the first 60 days of negotiation, and the further Memorandum and negotiations which will inevitably follow in the years to come:
• The Iranian regime, playing the long game, will bide its time, feeding a war chest, building rockets, drones, sea mines, and funding terror proxies.
• Once Donald Trump is out of the way, the mullahs will resume building an atom bomb more openly, knowing no nation will stand against them other than Israel.
• There will not be another Donald Trump. The pity of the moment is that America and the world did not stand with the president, our amazing military, and Israel.
• World leaders will keep kicking the can down the road until Iran’s nuclear ambitions bear fruit. Assuming Israel still exists, and I think it will, it will be left to the Israelis to rescue an undeserving world.
In the meantime:
• The United States of American has betrayed Israel, our nation’s most reliable partner.
• The United States of America has also betrayed the Persian people of Iran, depriving them of the opportunity to eliminate an alien regime that has dominated the life of the country and killed thousands more Iranians than Israel and America ever have or will!
• NATO’s response to the Iranian threat, and its failure to join the United States, Israel, and several of the Middle Eastern countries, has been surprising in its fecklessness. Of what use is NATO?